2025 NCAA Tournament Rant

To begin, this has nothing to do with my Bracketology.   I do it for fun and because I absolutely love this tournament.  I have for over 40 years.  And the tournament will deliver despite what I am about to say.  It always does.

Here goes.  The inclusion of North Carolina was completely done because the AD was the chair and the good ol' boys hung out with him all week AND because of TV.

Now nobody cares about my opinion.  I get that.  But the decision was made to include two teams who proved time and again this season they could not win Quad 1 games.  Let me break this down real simple with mathematics...

The NCAA Tournament is played on neutral sites.  A Quad 1 game on a neutral site is represented by teams in the top 50 in the NET.  Other than most of the AQ teams on seed lines 12 to 16, every other team is in the top 50 except for conveniently North Carolina's First Four opponent San Diego State.  So when picking an 11 seed, every team they are likely to face is a Quad 1 game in the tournament.   Yet a team who was 1-12 in those such games is given another chance because of Brand Name.  Xavier was 1-9 in those games.  The committee sighted the records when including Quad 2.  You know where Quad 2 games are played?  The NIT!

West Virginia defeated 3 top teams in the top 12 in NET.  Plus one other victory better than UNC'S lone triumph over UCLA.  But West Virginia does not draw eyeballs.  The Mountaineers played a #62 non-conference schedule which is very good, played in a tougher Big 12 and still only ended up with one more losses than UNC.  West Virginia also did not have a Quad 3 loss but guess who did?  Yep, the Tar Heels.  

This is such a bad inclusion and such a bad look.  And don't get me started on predictive metrics.  How many games did North Carolina lose when the metrics said they should win?  On court results matter.  UNC failed this year and that should have been ok. 

If you read this, thanks for listening. 

Bracketology Final Seed List 2025

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's 

3's - Texas Tech, Kentucky,  Texas A&M, Wisconsin 

4's - Iowa State, Maryland, Purdue, Arizona

5's - Clemson, Ole Miss, Oregon, Michigan 

6's - BYU, Missouri, Illinois, Louisville

7's - Kansas, UCLA, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Memphis, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, West Virginia 

10's - VCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State 

11's - Colorado State, Baylor (Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas, Indiana)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Liberty

13's - Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Troy, Montana

15's - Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA))

Bracketology - March 16, 2025 7 AM CST - potential bracket

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn

16 American/St. Francis (PA)

(Lexington)

8 Connecticut 

9 New Mexico

5 Oregon 

12 McNeese State

(Seattle)

4 Arizona

13 High Point

6 Louisville 

11 Vanderbilt/Indiana 

(Milwaukee)

3 Kentucky 

14 Troy

7 Kansas

10 Arkansas

(Cleveland)

2 Michigan State 

15 Robert Morris 

East (Newark)

1 Duke

16 SIUE/Alabama State

(Raleigh)

8 Mississippi State 

9 West Virginia 

5 Mississippi 

12 UC San Diego

(Seattle)

4 Purdue 

13 Akron

6 Illinois

11 San Diego State/Texas

(Wichita)

3 Texas Tech

14 Montana

7 St. Mary's 

10 VCU

(Lexington)

2 Tennessee 

15 Wofford 

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston

16 Mount St. Mary's 

(Wichita)

8 Gonzaga 

9 Georgia 

5 Clemson 

12 Liberty 

(Providence)

4 Maryland 

13 Yale

6 Missouri

11 Baylor

(Milwaukee)

3 Wisconsin 

14 UNC-Wilmington 

7 Marquette 

10 Utah State

(Cleveland)

2 Alabama

15 Omaha

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida 

16 Norfolk State 

(Raleigh)

8 Memphis 

9 Creighton 

5 Michigan 

12 Drake 

(Denver)

4 Iowa State

13 Grand Canyon

6 BYU 

11 Colorado State

(Denver)

3 Texas A&M

14 Lipscomb

7 UCLA 

10 Oklahoma 

(Providence)

2 St. John's 

15 Bryant

Bracketology - March 16, 2025 7 AM CST

Here is where I am at right now.  A few more AQ's left, but otherwise it is coming nicely together.  I think the SEC Tournament Champ will get the last #1.  Memphis and VCU can hold the bubble where it's at, with Indiana being my last team in.

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's 

3's - Texas Tech, Kentucky,  Texas A&M, Wisconsin 

4's - Iowa State, Maryland, Purdue, Arizona

5's - Clemson, Ole Miss, Oregon, Michigan 

6's - BYU, Missouri, Illinois, Louisville

7's - Kansas, UCLA, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Memphis, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, West Virginia 

10's - VCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State 

11's - Colorado State, Baylor (Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas, Indiana)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Liberty

13's - Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Troy, Montana

15's - Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA))

Bracketology - March 14, 2025 - Seed Lines

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas Tech

3's - Kentucky, St. John's, Iowa State, Texas A&M

4's - Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Clemson

5's - Arizona, Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU

6's - Missouri, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas

7's - UCLA, Louisville, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Memphis, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, VCU

10's - Utah State, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas

11's - Oklahoma, Baylor (San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, North Carolina)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Yale

13's - Liberty, High Point, Akron, Troy

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Utah Valley, Wofford

15's - Robert Morris, Bryant, Montana, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Quinnipiac (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA)

Bracketology - Comparison Chart Update Through March 13, 2025

Thursday is moving day.  The committee is knee-deep in it now and the movement will be minimal from here on out.  Here is the updated comparison chart for the at-large pool.  I will follow with my current seed lines in the next post.

Bracketology - March 12, 2025 (Midday)

Moving a few pieces around as the conference tournaments continue.  Vanderbilt and West Virginia with poor performances, but both teams are safe.  Currently monitoring Ohio State.  Bracket not perfect but seeds where I want them.

Bracketology - Team Comparisons and Seeding Difficulties

The Great Bracketology Conundrum - Are we predicting what the field should be or are we predicting what the committee will do?  I have always attempted to do the latter.  And here are some facts that we know:

1)  The Committee always does a few things with seeding that make no sense

2)  The Committee is getting together for a 2nd time this week and has not been completing Bracketology for the last few months.  They are taking a fresh look at resumes and team sheets without bias of where a team was 2 1/2 weeks ago

3)  The Committee always does a few things with seeding that make no sense

Now that we know that, we don't really know anything.  It's really just for fun.  So let's compare a few teams to help try and predict the unpredictable!

Top #2 Seed - Tennessee vs Alabama

Tennessee 25-6 (Net:5, KenPom:5) 5-5 in Quad 1A, 10-6 in Quad 1, 14-6 in Quad 1+2

SOS 13, Non-Conf SOS 132.  Wins over Florida, Alabama, Illinois, Texas A&M, Louisville, Missouri

Alabama 24-7 (Net:6, KenPom:6) 9-5 in Quad 1A, 11-7 in Quad 1, 18-7 in Quad 1+2

SOS 1, Non-Conf SOS 10.  Wins over Auburn, Houston, Kentucky x2, Illinois, Texas A&M

On Feb 15th, the committee revealed a mock top 16 by going through the same exercise they will do this week.  At that time, Alabama was #2 and Tennessee was #5.  Since that reveal, Tennessee went 5-1 with wins over Alabama, at A&M and Vanderbilt and a loss at Mississippi.  Alabama went 3-4 with wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State, but also losing at home to Auburn and Florida, as well as dropping games to Tennessee and Missouri.

Alabama clearly has the advantage in Quad 1A victories and SOS.  Tennessee still has the higher NET and KenPom despite that Alabama advantage, plus it lost one fewer game and beat Alabama head-to-head.  I am not sure what way the committee will lean here.  Last year the final #1 seed came down to North Carolina and Tennessee.  North Carolina ultimately got the final #1 and also had a head-to-head win over Tennessee.  

These teams also sit on opposite sides of the SEC tournament bracket, so the only way they will meet again is the SEC Final.  Obviously that would provide an easy tie-breaker.  Also an easy tie-breaker if either loses their quarterfinal or only one advances to the SEC Final.  

A hidden reason why this is important...based on how the top line is shaking out, their is only one spot left to play the first two rounds in Lexington, the preferred site for both.  Cleveland would be the alternative for Tennessee and potentially Alabama as well.

Final #3 Seed - Iowa State vs Maryland

Iowa State 23-8 (Net:9, KenPom:10) 2-4 in Quad 1A, 7-6 in Quad 1, 14-8 in Quad 1+2

SOS 37, Non-Conf SOS 98.  Wins over Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, Marquette

Maryland 24-7 (Net:11, KenPom:13) 2-4 in Quad 1A, 7-6 in Quad 1, 13-7 in Quad 1+2

SOS 53, Non-Conf SOS 326.  Wins over Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA

Two very similar resumes except for that Non-Conference SOS.  C'mon Maryland, do better!  That being said, the margin is still close and the committee may elect a 2nd team from the higher-rated Big 10 over a 3rd team from the Big 12 at this point.  With the amount of Big 10 Teams in the 4 to 5 range, it also might make bracketing a little easier, but that is a secret only that room knows if they do.  Right now I still have Iowa State ahead of Maryland on the seed list, but I am at least considering and monitoring this one.

Seeding Discrepancy - Arizona vs Illinois

Arizona 20-11 (Net:13, KenPom:16) 4-7 in Quad 1A, 7-11 in Quad 1, 11-11 in Quad 1+2

SOS 8, Non-Conf SOS 34.  Wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU and Baylor x2

Illinois 20-11 (Net:15, KenPom:18) 4-7 in Quad 1A, 8-9 in Quad 1, 14-11 in Quad 1+2

SOS 9, Non-Conf SOS 23.  Wins over Purdue, Missouri, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin and UCLA

I have seen Arizona 3 seed lines better than Illinois in some bracketology renderings.  I am guessing that is because Arizona had an ascension in Big 12 Conference Play while Illinois was faltering.  The Illini recovered somewhat while Arizona lost 5 of 8 to finish and now these resumes look eerily similar.  Illinois does have a ridiculous loss to Duke by 43 in February, but they were fighting injury and illness that week.  It's not a complete pass, but just context.

Let's play a fun game...What's Arizona's best non-conference win by NET?  If you guessed Samford at 116, you Win!  Illinois beat Missouri and Arkansas out of the SEC and has conference wins to match Arizona's, including wins over Wisconsin and UCLA, both of whom beat the Wildcats.  Illinois is 10-7 against teams projected to be in the field or 9-7 if you take Ohio State out.  Arizona is 6-10 against teams projected to be in the field.

I finally dropped Arizona to a 5 and ascended Illinois to a 6.  I am not so sure the Illini doesn't have a better resume.  Arizona absolutely pummeled a bunch of really bad non-conference teams, lifting their metrics above where their performance has dictated.  That and a reputation has carried them in the bracketology world.  I am curious how that reputation and inflated metrics will be seen by the committee.

Conference Foes - Missouri vs Ole Miss

Missouri 21-10 (Net:21, KenPom:20) 4-5 in Quad 1A, 6-10 in Quad 1, 9-10 in Quad 1+2

SOS 24, Non-Conf SOS 217.  Wins over Florida, Alabama, Kansas, Ole Miss and Georgia

Ole Miss 21-10 (Net:27, KenPom 27) 5-6 in Quad 1A, 7-9 in Quad 1, 12-10 in Quad 1+2

SOS 7, Non-Conf SOS 71.  Wins over Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Louisville, BYU and Georgia

Missouri was red-hot and ascended as high as a 3 seed in my bracketology.  They have now lost 4 of 5 and the whole body of work now tells a different story.  Ole Miss is behind Missouri in the metrics and lost head-to head, but has more wins in all the top Quads and a better SOS.  Once again Missouri is boosted by their ability to absolutely smash a few inferior non-conference foes, including a 72 point win over Mississippi Valley State.  

It appears as though the bracketology world has finally changed its tune and Missouri is behind Ole Miss in the matrix.  I am in agreement with this assessment.  The top end wins of these two teams might carry more weight than the industry is projecting.  While the metrics favor the two teams above that I just compared, it can be argued that the wins of Missouri and Ole Miss are better than those of Arizona and Illinois.  These teams are all in the same general seeding area, we will just have to see what the committee conveniently looks at when deciphering between these teams.

Bracketology - March 11, 2025 Update for Conference Tourney Changes

 

Bracketology - March 10, 2025 Update

 Just a quick update to remove Chattanooga for Furman.  

Bracketology - March 9, 2025

Saturday's games cleared up the bubble but muddled the seeding almost across the board.  I tried to do a full scrub here today, as the committee will be starting fresh and hasn't been seeding these teams for weeks.  There were a few bigger movers from my last bracket posting.  I will analyze a few of those situations in the next couple days.

Bracketology - March 9, 2025 - Comparison Chart

 Just sharing a little comparison chart I put together summarizing info from the Team Sheets (Thru Saturday's games):

Bracketology Update - March 6, 2025

We have a little flip-flop at the top with Florida moving back to the 1-line and Tennessee falling back to the 2.  No other significant movers and the bubble had the night off.

Bracketology Update - March 5, 2025

Last night definitely lived up to it's billing, including the overall #1 seed losing and shrinking their hold on that spot.  If the tournament can just give us games like last night....whew, we will be in for an amazing 3 weeks!

Some bracket changes today but I will admit this one is a little more "rough draft" and will be scrubbed after results of Wednesday's games.  Moved all 14 viable SEC teams into the field after 3 of them recorded huge road wins.  Nebraska fell out and joins North Carolina, Boise State and Xavier in my "first four out".

2025 Bracketology - It's Danger Night (March 4, 2025)

No changes to the bracket based on last night.  Duke and Houston held serve, as did UCLA.  I already had dropped Kansas to an 8, which is actually probably their floor.  The Jayhawks are frankly just not very good right now.

Tuesday Night brings us more action than Monday and a lot of dangerous games across the schedule as bubble teams galore are playing on the road!

Tueday's Bubble Battles

Georgia at South Carolina - Can the Gamecocks continue to destroy hopes of the SEC's bubble teams?  After wins against Texas and Arkansas, South Carolina is playing better than any 16th place team in the nation.  Georgia's bug-a-boo has been their unsightly road record, but can they make it two in a row away from Athens to stay on the right side of this soft bubble?

North Carolina at Virginia Tech - Any slim hopes the Tar Heels have of flipping to the right side of the bubble could be burst with a loss at the 13-16 Hokies.

Texas at Mississippi State - The Longhorns have played their way out of the field.  Another loss here in Starkville will put them on bubble life support.

Baylor at TCU - The Bears are a polarizing team that I struggle to figure out what the committee will think of their resume.  At 17-12 and a game with Houston on the weekend, a loss to the Horned Frogs could do more damage than we realize.

Boise State at Air Force - The Broncos have themselves on the cusp of the field, waiting for others to slip up.  Losing to 4-25 Air Force would undo all of that.

Nebraska at Ohio State - A 2-for-1 Bubble Special in Columbus!  The Good News is one bubble team will win.  The Bad News - the loser is in trouble, especially the Buckeyes who finish with a trip to Indiana.

Indiana at Oregon - Speaking of the Hoosiers, they try and keep up their late-season surge against the red-hot Ducks.  A loss here will make Saturday's tilt against Ohio State very interesting in bubble world.

West Virginia at Utah - The Mountaineers have quietly hovered just out of bubble territory, with wins over Iowa State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas carrying a lot of weight.  A slip up in Salt Lake City tonight will move them to the thick of the bubble and make their finale against UCF a must-win.

Arkansas at Vanderbilt - Arkansas got an early start on bumbling back to danger territory with a horrific performance at South Carolina Saturday.  Vandy is a hot and cold team currently running on a heater.  Arkansas could use another big road win to solidify their resume.  Another loss here and the Razorbacks will need a win Saturday at home vs Mississippi State to give themselves any hope heading into the SEC tournament.

New Mexico at Nevada and San Diego State at UNLV - The Lobos seem secure but the Mountain West isn't quite as strong this season and the Aztecs have a good resume, but not great.  Piling up wins is the best strategy for both at this point.

Villanova at Georgetown - Is Villanova really even on the bubble?  If so, then this is a must-win.  Otherwise, just enjoy the 40th anniversary of the "Perfect Game".

Bracketology Update - March 3, 2025

After a full weekend, the bracket continues to go through constant scrubbing and changes.  Today, I will put a little focus on the battle for the 1-seeds.  I am seeing a lot of the bracketology world with Houston solidly on the 1-line as opposed to 3 SEC teams.  A couple weeks ago, the committee met for its mock procedure of seeding the top 16 seeds.  At that time, the SEC had 5 of the 6 top spots and Houston was #8.  Houston has not lost since that day and has defeated Arizona, Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Tennessee was #5 in that procedure and also has not lost since that day, picking up wins over Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama.  I don't see how Houston would have jumped ahead of Tennessee based on that, so Tennessee assumes the #3 overall spot behind Auburn and Duke.  Alabama has lost 3 games since the top 16 reveal, which does drop them behind Houston.  So the last #1 spot comes down to Florida or Houston.  Florida has gone 4-1 since the mock was done, losing at Georgia and adding a win over Texas A&M.  It is razor thin, but I will side with Houston as the #4 and final one-seed.  A Florida victory at Alabama would likely flip it back as Florida would be 2-0 vs Auburn and Alabama and Houston is 0-2 against those same 2 common opponents.