College Basketball Field of 68 - Bubble Analysis

 

			As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20	As of 2/20
Bubble		Team	Record	Conf. Record	Road Record	RPI (ESPN)	SOS (ESPN)	Vs Top 25	Vs Top 50	Vs Top 100	Vs Top 150
1.	9	Colorado	20-7	9-5	4-4	24	28	1-3	3-6	10-7	13-7
2.	9	Gonzaga	22-5	13-2	5-3	28	103	0-0	1-3	7-4	10-4
3.	9	Geo. Washington	20-6	8-4	5-4	32	89	2-2	3-3	9-6	11-6
4.	9	Missouri	19-7	7-6	3-4	36	63	1-2	1-2	8-7	14-7
5.	10	California	17-9	8-5	5-4	50	51	1-4	3-6	7-8	11-9
6.	10	Stanford	17-8	8-5	6-3	48	66	0-3	4-6	5-8	9-8
7.	10	SMU	21-6	10-4	5-5	46	160	1-2	3-3	4-4	6-4
8.	10	Xavier	18-8	8-5	3-4	52	87	1-2	1-3	6-6	13-8
9.	11	St. Joseph’s	18-7	8-3	7-3	40	68	2-4	2-5	5-6	9-6
10.	11	Minnesota	16-10	6-8	3-5	42	5	2-4	3-6	4-8	8-10
11.	11	Oregon	17-8	5-8	3-5	39	30	0-3	1-6	8-8	12-8
12.	11	Baylor	15-9	5-8	2-4	44	7	2-5	5-7	6-8	7-9
13.	11	Tennessee	15-10	7-6	2-6	51	8	1-4	1-5	6-9	10-10
14.	12	St. John’s	18-9	8-6	3-4	53	45	1-4	1-4	5-7	9-9
15.	12	Nebraska	15-10	7-6	2-7	49	22	2-6	3-7	5-7	9-10
16.	OUT	Oklahoma State	16-10	4-9	2-6	47	19	2-3	3-9	6-9	10-10
17.	OUT	Providence	17-10	7-7	3-5	60	57	1-4	1-4	6-9	11-10
18.	OUT	Dayton	18-8	6-5	5-3	57	65	0-2	3-5	7-5	9-7
19.	OUT	BYU	18-10	11-5	4-7	37	18	1-3	3-5	7-6	10-8
20.	OUT	Georgetown	15-11	6-8	2-6	62	32	2-3	3-4	5-8	10-10
21.	OUT	West Virginia	15-11	7-6	3-6	68	46	1-4	4-9	4-9	7-10
22.	OUT	Richmond	17-9	7-4	5-5	45	33	1-4	2-6	6-8	7-9
23.	OUT	LSU	16-9	7-6	2-6	66	84	1-1	3-2	5-6	9-8
24.	OUT	Arkansas	17-9	6-7	1-5	69	71	1-1	3-5	6-8	9-9
25.	OUT	Florida State	15-11	6-8	4-6	64	47	2-6	2-7	4-10	8-11

REMAINING GAMES:

Colorado:  Arizona (2), @ Utah (97), @Stanford (48), @ California (50), PAC 12 Tournament

Gonzaga: @ San Diego (164), @ Pacific (123), @ St. Mary’s (65), WCC Tournament

George Washington:  @ St. Louis (12), George Mason (149), St. Joseph’s (40), @ Fordham (191), Atlantic 10 Tournament

Missouri:  @ Alabama (127), @ Georgia (93), Mississippi State (196), Texas A&M (129), @ Tennessee (51), SEC Tournament

SMU:  @ Connecticut (27), UCF (190), Louisville (35), @ Memphis (24), AAC Tournament

California:  USC (140), @ Arizona (2), @ Arizona State (31), Utah (97), Colorado (24), PAC 12 Tournament

Stanford:  UCLA (13), @ Arizona State (31), @ Arizona (2), Colorado (24), Utah (97), PAC 12 Tournament

Xavier:  @Georgetown (62), @ St. John’s (53), Creighton (6), @ Seton Hall (122), Villanova (4), Big East Tournament

St. Joseph’s:  Fordham (191), Dayton (57), @ St. Bonaventure (78), @ George Washington (32), LaSalle (91), Atlantic 10 Tournament

Minnesota:  @ Ohio State (18), Iowa (30), @ Michigan (19), Penn State (108), Big 10 Tournament

Oregon:  Washington State (181), @ UCLA (13), @ USC (140), Arizona State (31), Arizona (2), PAC 12 Tournament

Baylor:  @ West Virginia (68), @ Texas (23), Texas Tech (105), Iowa State (9), @ Kansas State (38), Big 12 Tournament

Tennessee: @ Texas A&M (129), @ Mississippi State (196), Vanderbilt (92), @ Auburn (138), Missouri (36), SEC Tournament

St. John’s:  @Villanova (4), Xavier (52), DePaul (125), @ Marquette (75), Big East Tournament

Nebraska:  Purdue (116), @ Illinois (80), Northwestern (103), @Indiana (101), Wisconsin (5), Big 10 Tournament

Oklahoma State:  Texas Tech (105), @ TCU (195), Kansas (1), Kansas State (38), @ Iowa State (9), Big 12 Tournament

Providence:  @ Butler (131), @ Seton Hall (122), Marquette (75), @ Creighton (6), Big East Tournament

Dayton:  @ Duquesne (209), @ St. Joseph’s (40), Massachusetts (16), @ St. Louis (12), Richmond (45), Atlantic 10 Tournament

BYU:  Portland (163), @ San Diego (164), WCC Tournament

Georgetown:  Xavier (52), @ Marquette (75), Creighton (6), @ Villanova (4), Big East Tournament

West Virginia:  Baylor (44), @ Iowa State (9), TCU (195), @ Oklahoma (26), Kansas (1), Big 12 Tournament

Richmond:  LaSalle (91), @ George Mason (149), @ Rhode Island (175), VCU (22), @ Dayton (57), Atlantic 10 Tournament

LSU:  @ Kentucky (11), Texas A&M (129), @ Florida (3), @ Vanderbilt (92), Georgia (93), SEC Tournament

Arkansas:  @ Mississippi State (196), @ Kentucky (11), Georgia (93), Ole Miss (76), @ Alabama (127), SEC Tournament

Florida State:  @ Pittsburgh (33), Georgia Tech (153), @ Boston College (173), Syracuse (7), ACC Tournament

ANALYSIS:

Colorado:  The Buffaloes sit at the top of the 9 line right now, but with Arizona and 3 Road Games waiting, nothing is certain.  An 0-4 finish will bring up the Dinwiddie questions again and make the PAC 12 Tournament very important.  Conversely, even a 2-2 finish should signal that this team has enough talent to warrant a middle seed in the NCAA tournament.

Gonzaga:  The resume is not sparkling, but I think if they avoid a bad loss down the stretch they should be fine.  If they lose to St. Mary’s or BYU again, it might affect their seed, but the RPI and record vs the Top 100 should be enough.

George Washington:  The Colonials are probably closer to in then the teams above them, but I don’t want to assume victories over George Mason and Fordham.  A 2-2 finish should be enough, a 1-3 finish might require a little work in the A-10 Tourney.

Missouri:  The resume of the Tigers is starting to have a little meat compared to other bubble teams.  Their signature win vs UCLA is comparable to most, and their 8 top 100 and 14 top 150 wins are right at the top of this list.  They also have no bad losses.  The next two road games are big with 2 winnable home games following.  The only hesitation is that there is not much room for improvement in the resume before the SEC tournament.  Avoid danger and go 4-1 and things will be fine for the Tigers.

California:  The Golden Bears have the win over Arizona in their pocket, plus 7 Top 100 and 11 Top 150 wins.  There is enough there that a 3-2 finish should be enough to make them fairly safe going into the PAC-12 tournament.

Stanford:  The Cardinal did not beat Arizona as Cal did, so I have them a step behind them at this point.  Stanford closes with 5 Top 100 teams, 3 at home, so the opportunity is there to enhance the resume even more.  A loss to UCLA this weekend though sends them to Arizona staring at a potential 3 game losing streak.  At that point, things would get serious.

SMU:  I find the AAC teams to have strange numbers.  With 5 teams in the conference with sub-150 RPI’s, these teams are showing up with the fewest wins in the 150 category.  The Mustangs are in dangerous territory because of this.  With Louisville and 2 difficult road games, the opportunity is there, but losses to all 3 suddenly means a 4-7 Top 100 record and 6-7 Top 150 record.  Neither of which is tournament –worthy.

Xavier:  This resume looked stronger weeks ago and on the surface I probably had them seeded 1-line too high yesterday.  Add in road games against fellow bubble contenders Georgetown and St. John’s in their next two games and the Musketeers are in more trouble than you think.  Their home games are Creighton and Villanova, so this is going to be either very bad or very good for Xavier the next two weeks.

St. Joseph’s:  A manageable remaining schedule, the Red Hawks could use a 3-2 finish adding a couple more top 100 wins to impress the committee and maintain their solid RPI.

Minnesota:  If Xavier is in trouble, Minnesota is in BIG trouble.  For both, the schedule provides opportunity.  It also has Minnesota staring at 3 tough games while not playing their best basketball.  I am not sure there is room for a 14-loss Minnesota team in this field, so winning 1 of the next 3 is paramount.  Any of the 3 also adds another really good win.

Oregon:  The Ducks dug themselves a hole and are slowly crawling out, but have little room for error or the hole collapses.  They need a 3-2 finish to stay relevant, better to feel safe.  Who knows with this year’s PAC-12.

Baylor:  The Bears were free-falling before a recent stretch has them back squarely on the bubble.  The 5 top-50 wins are best in this group and there are really no bad losses.  The conference record and record vs the Top 150 are what is concerning, as is a finish with 3 tough road games plus Iowa State.

Tennessee:  SOS #’s and Non-conference wins over Virginia and Xavier are helping the Vols, but anything less than a 4-1 finish would be inexcusable.

St. John’s:  The hottest team on the bubble, I have the Red Storm in the Field of 68 at this time.  Creighton at home is their only signature win, but winning 9 of 10 has to at least affect the human element of this process.  They also have 4 top 7 losses, none of which hurts them.  A 3-1 finish would be ideal for Chris Mullin’s alma mater, which would also add 2 more top 100 wins before the Big East Tourney.

Nebraska:  I have the Cornhuskers as my last team in.  The road record is bad, but one of the 2 wins was at Michigan State.  Add in a win over Ohio State and that is a good resume starter.  The tricky part is that they have to avoid letdowns at home and probably win 2 of 3 of the @Illinois/@Indiana/Wisconsin games.

Oklahoma State:  A team that has lost 7 games in a row just can’t be in the field, but the fact that they are still right there should tell you something.  Marcus Smart needs to come back and show that this team is more like the team everyone thought and less like the team as of late.  They showed grit without him, but need his talents to get them back on track.  Winning the next 2 is a must.  Beating Kansas would be ideal.

Providence:  They have some really good resume pieces, but have fallen off a bit and now are on the wrong side of my bubble.  Two huge road games are next.  A loss in either will make things difficult, like having to win at Creighton.

Dayton:  Another team that fell off the radar, the Flyers are inching their way back and have a finishing schedule that can get them there.  They have to beat Duquesne and then add at least 2 wins of the remaining4 to get major consideration.  They already beat Gonzaga, Cal and George Washington, so a win over UMass plus one of the others would look really good to the committee.

BYU:  Many have the Cougars in, especially after last night’s home win vs Gonzaga.  I am hesitant, mainly due to the bad losses they have accumulated and the fact that the opportunities are slim from here on out.  If they beat Gonzaga again, it would be for an automatic bid, so this at-large resume has really no more to add, outside of another win against St. Mary’s.

Georgetown:  The Hoyas have stumbled after their win over Michigan State and have a tough finishing schedule.  I sound like a broken record, but at least it provides an opportunity for some impressive wins, especially the Creighton and Villanova games.  Like Minnesota, we would be looking at a 14-loss at-large team if they finish 2-2.  It would all depend on what is going on around them.

West Virginia:  As nice as their mini-run was, they need another one to finish strong.  Like the Gophers and Hoyas, a 3-2 finish puts them in that 14 loss category.  It also gives them 2 more nice wins, so it is hard to say.  Like Baylor, they have a bad record against the Top 150.  I would recommend a 4-1 finish.

Richmond:  The Spiders also don’t have a stellar top 150 record, but lack the top 50 wins of Baylor and West Virginia.  The schedule is not daunting, but a win over VCU might be a must for this profile to stack up in the end.

LSU/Arkansas:  Almost the same profile.  Both beat Kentucky and have similar peripherals.  Both have opportunities to sweep Kentucky by winning in Lexington.  LSU has better other opportunities.  Arkansas almost needs to win at Kentucky.

Florida State:  Not sure why I still included the Seminoles, but I figure if they win at Pitt and take care of the next two, a home game against Syracuse could be the make or break game.  Lose at Pitt and we can probably figure out their NIT opponent.