Bracketology Update - March 6, 2025

We have a little flip-flop at the top with Florida moving back to the 1-line and Tennessee falling back to the 2.  No other significant movers and the bubble had the night off.

Bracketology Update - March 5, 2025

Last night definitely lived up to it's billing, including the overall #1 seed losing and shrinking their hold on that spot.  If the tournament can just give us games like last night....whew, we will be in for an amazing 3 weeks!

Some bracket changes today but I will admit this one is a little more "rough draft" and will be scrubbed after results of Wednesday's games.  Moved all 14 viable SEC teams into the field after 3 of them recorded huge road wins.  Nebraska fell out and joins North Carolina, Boise State and Xavier in my "first four out".

2025 Bracketology - It's Danger Night (March 4, 2025)

No changes to the bracket based on last night.  Duke and Houston held serve, as did UCLA.  I already had dropped Kansas to an 8, which is actually probably their floor.  The Jayhawks are frankly just not very good right now.

Tuesday Night brings us more action than Monday and a lot of dangerous games across the schedule as bubble teams galore are playing on the road!

Tueday's Bubble Battles

Georgia at South Carolina - Can the Gamecocks continue to destroy hopes of the SEC's bubble teams?  After wins against Texas and Arkansas, South Carolina is playing better than any 16th place team in the nation.  Georgia's bug-a-boo has been their unsightly road record, but can they make it two in a row away from Athens to stay on the right side of this soft bubble?

North Carolina at Virginia Tech - Any slim hopes the Tar Heels have of flipping to the right side of the bubble could be burst with a loss at the 13-16 Hokies.

Texas at Mississippi State - The Longhorns have played their way out of the field.  Another loss here in Starkville will put them on bubble life support.

Baylor at TCU - The Bears are a polarizing team that I struggle to figure out what the committee will think of their resume.  At 17-12 and a game with Houston on the weekend, a loss to the Horned Frogs could do more damage than we realize.

Boise State at Air Force - The Broncos have themselves on the cusp of the field, waiting for others to slip up.  Losing to 4-25 Air Force would undo all of that.

Nebraska at Ohio State - A 2-for-1 Bubble Special in Columbus!  The Good News is one bubble team will win.  The Bad News - the loser is in trouble, especially the Buckeyes who finish with a trip to Indiana.

Indiana at Oregon - Speaking of the Hoosiers, they try and keep up their late-season surge against the red-hot Ducks.  A loss here will make Saturday's tilt against Ohio State very interesting in bubble world.

West Virginia at Utah - The Mountaineers have quietly hovered just out of bubble territory, with wins over Iowa State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas carrying a lot of weight.  A slip up in Salt Lake City tonight will move them to the thick of the bubble and make their finale against UCF a must-win.

Arkansas at Vanderbilt - Arkansas got an early start on bumbling back to danger territory with a horrific performance at South Carolina Saturday.  Vandy is a hot and cold team currently running on a heater.  Arkansas could use another big road win to solidify their resume.  Another loss here and the Razorbacks will need a win Saturday at home vs Mississippi State to give themselves any hope heading into the SEC tournament.

New Mexico at Nevada and San Diego State at UNLV - The Lobos seem secure but the Mountain West isn't quite as strong this season and the Aztecs have a good resume, but not great.  Piling up wins is the best strategy for both at this point.

Villanova at Georgetown - Is Villanova really even on the bubble?  If so, then this is a must-win.  Otherwise, just enjoy the 40th anniversary of the "Perfect Game".

Bracketology Update - March 3, 2025

After a full weekend, the bracket continues to go through constant scrubbing and changes.  Today, I will put a little focus on the battle for the 1-seeds.  I am seeing a lot of the bracketology world with Houston solidly on the 1-line as opposed to 3 SEC teams.  A couple weeks ago, the committee met for its mock procedure of seeding the top 16 seeds.  At that time, the SEC had 5 of the 6 top spots and Houston was #8.  Houston has not lost since that day and has defeated Arizona, Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Tennessee was #5 in that procedure and also has not lost since that day, picking up wins over Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama.  I don't see how Houston would have jumped ahead of Tennessee based on that, so Tennessee assumes the #3 overall spot behind Auburn and Duke.  Alabama has lost 3 games since the top 16 reveal, which does drop them behind Houston.  So the last #1 spot comes down to Florida or Houston.  Florida has gone 4-1 since the mock was done, losing at Georgia and adding a win over Texas A&M.  It is razor thin, but I will side with Houston as the #4 and final one-seed.  A Florida victory at Alabama would likely flip it back as Florida would be 2-0 vs Auburn and Alabama and Houston is 0-2 against those same 2 common opponents.

Bracketology - February 27, 2025

Here is my first crack at the bracket this year.  The top of the bracket is solidifying quite nicely.  I think a lot of the seed jockeying as the regular season closes is in the seed 5 through 9 area.  A quality win by these teams can separate them from what I consider now to be a similar group of teams.  I also find the bubble to be very soft right now.  I never thought there would be a day where I included a team that was 4-11 in conference in the field!  I fully expect at least one bid-stealer to help firm that bubble.  The American conference is my top candidate to provide a bid-stealer with Memphis firmly in the field.  North Texas, UAB, FAU and Wichita State can all make that happen.  I will try and continue to update over the next 17 days.  

South (Atlanta)	East (Newark)
1. Auburn - Lexington (Thur)	2. Duke - Raleigh (Fri)
66. Marist/68. Bucknell - Lexington (Thur)	65. SE Missouri/67. Southern - Raleigh (Fri)
29. Creighton - Lexington (Thur)	32. UConn - Raleigh (Fri)
33. Utah State - Lexington (Thur)	35. Vanderbilt - Raleigh (Fri)
16. Michigan - Seattle (Thur)	14. St. John's - Providence (Thur)
54. Lipscomb - Seattle (Thur)	51. Liberty - Providence (Thur)
19. Marquette - Seattle (Thur)	17. Maryland - Providence (Thur)
50. Yale - Seattle (Thur)	47. Drake  - Providence (Thur)
21. Clemson - Providence (Thur)	22. St. Mary's - Denver (Fri)
44. Oklahoma/46. Indiana - Providence (Thur)	43. Texas/45. Ohio State - Denver (Fri)
11. Kentucky - Providence (Thur)	12. Texas Tech - Denver (Fri)
57. Towson - Providence (Thur)	56. Utah Valley - Denver (Fri)
27. UCLA - Wichita (Thurs)	28. Memphis - Cleveland (Fri)
37. New Mexico - Wichita (Thurs)	40. Baylor - Cleveland (Fri)
6. Houston - Wichita (Thurs)	5. Tennessee - Cleveland (Fri)
59. Montana - Wichita (Thurs)	61. Bryant  - Cleveland (Fri)
West (San Fran)	Midwest (Indy)
4. Florida - Lexington (Thur)	3. Alabama - Raleigh (Fri)
64. Omaha - Lexington (Thur)	63. Norfolk State - Raleigh (Fri)
30. BYU - Lexington (Thur)	31. Illinois - Raleigh (Fri)
34. Gonzaga - Lexington (Thur)	36. West Virginia - Raleigh (Fri)
13. Arizona - Denver (Fri)	15. Missouri -  Seattle (Thur)
52. Akron - Denver (Fri)	53. High Point  -  Seattle (Thur)
18. Purdue - Denver (Fri)	20. Oregon - Seattle (Thur)
49. McNeese State - Denver (Fri)	48. UC-San Diego  -  Seattle (Thur)
24. Kansas - Wichita (Thurs)	23. Mississippi State - Milwaukee (Fri)
42. Nebraska   - Wichita (Thurs)	41. VCU - Milwaukee (Fri)
9. Texas A&M - Wichita (Thurs)	10. Iowa State - Milwaukee (Fri)
58. James Madison - Wichita (Thurs)	55. Chattanooga - Milwaukee (Fri)
25. Mississippi - Milwaukee (Fri)	26. Louisville - Cleveland (Fri)
39. San Diego State - Milwaukee (Fri)	38. Arkansas - Cleveland (Fri)
8. Wisconsin - Milwaukee (Fri)	7. Michigan State - Cleveland (Fri)
62. Robert Morris - Milwaukee (Fri)	60. Central Conn State - Cleveland (Fri)