We are 4 days from Selection Sunday, so the field needs to take shape no matter if it wants to or not! I will be very interested in what the committee chooses to emphasize, not jut with the bubble but with seeding. Once again I will take my best shot at trying to predict what the committee will do. There will be a little bit of movement yet, but not as much as public opinion thinks. Here is my current look at the field:
1's - Purdue (overall #1), Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee
Purdue is locked and loaded as the overall #1 with their 8-1 record in Quad 1A (Q1A). I still have Tennessee as the last #1 with slightly higher overall metrics than North Carolina and a 6-3 Q1A record to 4-2 for the Heels.
2's - North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa State, Creighton
Iowa State has been the 2nd most consistent team in the best conference and the win over Houston goes a long way. I like Creighton's resume and the win over UConn better than Marquette's right now, but it could be decided on the court in a Big East Semifinal.
3's - Marquette, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky
My biggest trouble on the top 4 lines is which team out of Kansas, Kentucky and Baylor gets dropped to a 4. Kansas is polarizing and really tests the "entire body of work" mantra. They have wins over 3 teams listed on the 1-line above. When healthy they have that potential. They say McCullar and Dickinson will play in the NCAA's. What level of health we will not know. Again, the body of work says 3-seed. I am giving the nod to Kentucky who is 5-2 in Q1A, including 3 wins away from home against the top 7 in NET vs Baylor who is just 4-7 in Q1A.
4's - Baylor, Illinois, Alabama, Auburn
I believe Illinois and Alabama are locked in here. Pop quiz, what team's best road victory is #90 in the NET? Yes, that's Auburn who is the darling of both result-based and predictive metrics. I believe their resume speaks more like a 5 or 6, but no other team has jumped to take the spot away. I would have BYU here, but I am predicting what the committee will do.
So where will the top 16 be placed?
Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)
South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)
East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)
West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)
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5's - BYU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Nevada
Is it just me or is this range more difficult than previous years? Bracketologists seem down on Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have 3 Q1A wins plus a Q1B over Kansas and Only 1 loss outside Quad 1. Not flashy, but we are done with all the flash. The Mountain West is baffling. Nevada has 7 Quad 1 wins and an 8-3 road record, with only 6 losses overall. Right now I lean their way. Right now.
6's - Clemson, Utah State, St. Mary's, San Diego State
It doesn't get any easier to differentiate here. San Diego State is the Mountain West version of Texas Tech. Nothing flashy, but solid gets the nod.
7's - Wisconsin, Florida, Texas, Gonzaga
Could also see Washington State here, but with the lowest NET and subpar ratings in other metrics, I am going with these four.
8's - Washington State, Dayton, Northwestern, Boise State
insert shrug emoji
Let's build some more
Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)
5) Texas Tech (Spokane)
6) Clemson (Indianapolis)
7) Wisconsin (Omaha)
8) Dayton (Indianapolis)
South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)
5) Nevada (Spokane)
6) St. Mary's (Brooklyn)
7) Florida (Memphis)
8) Washington State (Memphis)
East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)
5) South Carolina (Salt Lake City)
6) San Diego State (Pittsburgh)
7) Texas (Charlotte)
8) Northwestern (Brooklyn)
West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)
5) BYU (Pittsburgh)
6) Utah State (Omaha)
7) Gonzaga (Salt Lake City)
8) Boise State (Charlotte)
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9's - Nebraska, Colorado State, TCU, Oklahoma
TCU and Oklahoma play in the Big 12 tourney. Loser could be a 10 pending other results.
10's - FAU, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Mississippi State
11's - Virginia, St. John's, Colorado, Indiana State (first four), Drake, Richmond
IDK what to do with Indiana State. They are better than Belmont from a few years back. Eye test will have to be on their side. These teams could really use Dayton to win the A10 tournament, FAU to win the American and no other bid stealers to emerge.
12's - South Florida, James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon
13's - McNeese State, Samford, UC-Irvine, Vermont
14's - Toledo, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Oakland
15's - Colgate, Morehead State, Montana, South Dakota State
16's - Stetson, Wagner, Norfolk State, Grambling State (first four), Quinnipiac, Longwood
Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)
5) Texas Tech (Spokane)
6) Clemson (Indianapolis)
7) Wisconsin (Omaha)
8) Dayton (Indianapolis)
9) Colorado State (Indianapolis)
10) Mississippi State (Omaha)
11) Drake (Indianapolis)
12) Grand Canyon (Spokane)
13) Samford (Spokane)
14) Toledo (Indianapolis)
15) South Dakota State (Omaha)
16) Norfolk State/Wagner (Indianapolis)
South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)
5) Nevada (Spokane)
6) St. Mary's (Brooklyn)
7) Florida (Memphis)
8) Washington State (Memphis)
9) Nebraska (Memphis)
10) FAU (Memphis)
11) Colorado/Indiana State (Brooklyn)
12) Princeton (Spokane)
13) Vermont (Spokane)
14) Charleston (Brooklyn)
15) Morehead State (Memphis)
16) Longwood (Memphis)
East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)
5) South Carolina (Salt Lake City)
6) San Diego State (Pittsburgh)
7) Texas (Charlotte)
8) Northwestern (Brooklyn)
9) TCU (Brooklyn)
10) Seton Hall (Charlotte)
11) Richmond (Pittsburgh)
12) James Madison (Salt Lake City)
13) UC-Irvine (Salt Lake City)
14) Oakland (Pittsburgh)
15) Colgate (Charlotte)
16) Quinnipiac (Brooklyn)
West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)
5) BYU (Pittsburgh)
6) Utah State (Omaha)
7) Gonzaga (Salt Lake City)
8) Boise State (Charlotte)
9) Oklahoma (Charlotte)
10) Michigan State (Salt Lake City)
11) Virginia/St. John's (Omaha)
12) South Florida (Pittsburgh)
13) McNeese State (Pittsburgh)
14) Sam Houston State (Omaha)
15) Montana (Salt Lake City)
16) Stetson/Grambling State (Charlotte)
